http://www.squarefootball.net/article/article.asp?aid=5424In 2006 we introduced the HOPELESS predictor in the hope of offering an objective, accurate prediction tool. We were half right. Last season it was tweaked and a further tweak this season will hopefully improve the prediction. Firstly we look at the relegation battle in the Premiership - where there are nine contenders; Derby and Fulham look down already - Reading, Birmingham and Bolton are most likely to join them with Wigan and the north-east trio of Sunderland, Newcastle and Middlesbrough hoping that they can stay clear.
Using the HOPELESS engine mk3 we hope to produce an accurate prediction of their final points tallies.
HOPELESS Engine Rules
The third season for the HOPELESS engine, and last season's rules are considered good enough. Any further changes would tend to predict too few points for the relegation candidates who usually do better than expected in the run-in.
This season the scoring for Relegation candidates will be:
Opposition's current standing
1-4: 0pts
5-10: 0.5pts
11-16: 1.5pts
17-20: 1.0pt
Bonuses
Home games: 0.5pts
Local game: -0.5pts
Every game: -0.3pts
Form
The difference between the points gained in the last 10 games (all matches considered as if they were league games) compared to the average over the season (league games only) added to each game. If negative, then form is ignored.
12. Middlesbrough 40 points
Strongest form of the relegation candidates and the most points in the bag - Middlesbrough are on the fringes of the battle only.
Form Modifiers
Strong form going into the run-in.
Form: Last 10; W4, D4, L2
Premier League Season: 1.04 points per game
Last 10 (equivalent): 1.60 points per game
Form modifier: 0.6pts per game
Games left
Middlesbrough must be pleased to be in-form and have the points in the bag, because they must play the top four - three away from home in the run-in. The home games against Derby and Bolton will be key.
0.3 Arsenal vs Middlesbrough 15-03-2008
1.8 Middlesbrough vs Derby 22-03-2008
0.3 Chelsea vs Middlesbrough 31-03-2008
0.8 Middlesbrough vs Man Utd 05-04-2008
1.8 Tottenham vs Middlesbrough 12-04-2008
1.8 Middlesbrough vs Bolton 19-04-2008
1.3 Sunderland vs Middlesbrough 26-04-2008
1.3 Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth 03-05-2008
0.3 Everton vs Middlesbrough 11-05-2008
Prediction
29 + 11 = 40 points
13. Wigan Athletic 37 points
Wigan are in strong form and have the majority of their remaining fixtures at home; even though they have some tough games remaining Wigan should be safe.
Form Modifiers
Stong form in the last 10 with a series of wins against rivals like Derby and Sunderland.
Form: Last 10; W4, D2, L4
Premier League Season: 0.96 points per game
Last 10 (equivalent): 1.40 points per game
Form modifier: +0.4pts per game
Games left
Wigan benefit from six home games in the last ten, but games against Chelsea, Arsenal, Man United and Villa will be tough added to derby games with Bolton and Blackburn make this a sticky run-in. Home games against Bolton, Birmingham and Reading should save Wigan.
0.6 Wigan vs Arsenal 09-03-2008
1.6 Wigan vs Bolton 15-03-2008
0.1 Blackburn vs Wigan 22-03-2008
0.6 Portsmouth vs Wigan 29-03-2008
2.1 Wigan vs Birmingham 05-04-2008
0.1 Chelsea vs Wigan 12-04-2008
2.1 Wigan vs Tottenham 19-04-2008
1.6 Wigan vs Reading 26-04-2008
0.6 Aston Villa vs Wigan 03-05-2008
0.1 Wigan vs Man Utd 11-05-2008
Prediction
27 + 10 = 37 points
14. Sunderland 36 points
Sunderland have six home games to rescue their season - and given their away form they will need their games.
Form Modifiers
Sunderland are in good form with wins over rivals Wigan, Birmingham and Bolton boosting their position in recent weeks.
Form: Last 10; W4, D1, L5
Premier League Season: 0.96 points per game
Last 10 (equivalent): 1.30 points per game
Form modifier: +0.3pts per game
Games left
Sunderland will appreciate having the majority of their remaining fixtures at home in what is a tricky fixture list; Everton, Chelsea, Villa and Arsenal to play, plus derby games with Middlesbrough and Newcastle means that away form needs to improve for comfort.
0.5 Sunderland vs Everton 09-03-2008
0.5 Sunderland vs Chelsea 15-03-2008
0.5 Aston Villa vs Sunderland 22-03-2008
1.0 Sunderland vs West Ham 29-03-2008
0.5 Fulham vs Sunderland 05-04-2008
1.0 Sunderland vs Man City 12-04-2008
1.0 Newcastle vs Sunderland 19-04-2008
1.5 Sunderland vs Middlesbro 26-04-2008
1.5 Bolton vs Sunderland 03-05-2008
0.5 Sunderland vs Arsenal 11-05-2008
Prediction
27 + 9 = 36 points
15. Newcastle United 35 points
Newcastle are locked into a tailspin of results, even if their performances do not always reflect this. With forward options like Owen, Martins, Smith, Viduka, Duff and Milner there is little doubt that Newcastle are good enough to be higher - it just needs a spark.
Form Modifiers
Only a solitary FA Cup win has lifted the gloom recently.
Form: Last 10; W1, D3, L6
Premier League Season: 1.00 points per game
Last 10 (equivalent): 0.60 points per game
Form modifier: 0pts per game
Games left
Fairly simple run-in with only Chelsea and Liverpool in the top six left to play; half of the games left fall into the 'winnable' category if Newcastle will just wake up.
0.2 Liverpool vs Newcastle 08-03-2008
1.2 Birmingham vs Newcastle 17-03-2008
1.2 Newcastle vs Fulham 22-03-2008
1.2 Tottenham vs Newcastle 30-03-2008
1.2 Newcastle vs Reading 05-04-2008
0.2 Portsmouth vs Newcastle 12-04-2008
1.2 Newcastle vs Sunderland 19-04-2008
0.2 West Ham vs Newcastle 26-04-2008
0.2 Newcastle vs Chelsea 03-05-2008
0.2 Man City vs Newcastle 11-05-2008
Prediction
28 + 7 = 35 points
16. Reading 34 points
The late win at Middlesbrough was the first win for Reading since beating Sunderland on 22 December and wasn't enough to lift them out of the relegation zone. But the run-in is the easiest of the relegation candidates - games against Fulham, Derby, Birmingam and Wigan mean safety is in Reading's control.
Form Modifiers
One win in ten means that Reading are in a mess - but their form is better than recent results suggest.
Form: Last 10; W1, D1, L8
Premier League Season: 0.89 points per game
Last 10 (equivalent): 0.40 points per game
Form modifier: 0pts per game
Games left
Nice run-in with home games against Man City, Birmingham, Blackburn, Fulham and Tottenham all winnable and a game at Derby to finish.
0.7 Reading vs Man City 08-03-2008
0.2 Liverpool vs Reading 15-03-2008
1.7 Reading vs Birmingham 22-03-2008
0.7 Reading vs Blackburn 29-03-2008
1.2 Newcastle vs Reading 05-04-2008
1.2 Reading vs Fulham 12-04-2008
0.0 Arsenal vs Reading 19-04-2008
1.2 Wigan vs Reading 26-04-2008
1.7 Reading vs Tottenham 03-05-2008
0.7 Derby vs Reading 11-05-2008
Prediction
25 + 9 = 34 points
17. Birmingham City 33 points
Tough recent fixtures, including 2 draws against Arsenal mean that Birmingham are playing well and enter a benign looking run-in just above the drop zone.
Form Modifiers
Although Birmingham have achieved some good results the Spurs win is the only one in the last 10.
Form: Last 10; W1, D5, L4
Premier League Season: 0.93 points per game
Last 10 (equivalent): 0.80 points per game
Form modifier: 0pts per game
Games left
Nice looking run-in for Birmingham with home games against Newcastle, Man City and Blackburn all looking winnable.
0.2 Portsmouth vs Birmingham 12-03-2008
1.7 Birmingham vs Newcastle 17-03-2008
0.7 Reading vs Birmingham 22-03-2008
0.7 Birmingham vs Man City 29-03-2008
1.2 Wigan vs Birmingham 05-04-2008
0.2 Birmingham vs Everton 12-04-2008
0.0 Aston Villa vs Birmingham 19-04-2008
0.7 Birmingham vs Liverpool 26-04-2008
0.7 Fulham vs Birmingham 03-05-2008
0.7 Birmingham vs Blackburn 11-05-2008
Prediction
26 + 7 = 33 points
18. Bolton Wanderers 31 points
Bolton are struggling to score goals in the wake of Nic Anelka's departure - and with the defensive solidity undermined by 7 goals conceded in two games Bolton are looking very vulnerable.
Form Modifiers
Recent good form has largely been in Europe and 7 goals conceded in the past week have undermined a defensive unit that was looking strong, having conceded 1 goal in the previous 6 games.
Form: Last 10; W2, D3, L5
Premier League Season: 0.89 points per game
Last 10 (equivalent): 0.90 points per game
Form modifier: 0pts per game
Games left
A nasty looking run-in with just four home games - mostly with top half sides; the Sunderland game on 3 May could decide Bolton's fate.
0.7 Wigan vs Bolton 15-03-2008
0.0 Man Utd vs Bolton 19-03-2008
0.2 Bolton vs Man City 22-03-2008
0.2 Bolton vs Arsenal 29-03-2008
0.2 Aston Villa vs Bolton 05-04-2008
0.7 Bolton vs West Ham 12-04-2008
1.2 Middlesbro vs Bolton 19-04-2008
1.2 Tottenham vs Bolton 26-04-2008
1.7 Bolton vs Sunderland 03-05-2008
0.0 Chelsea vs Bolton 11-05-2008
Prediction
25 + 6 = 31 points
19. Fulham 27 points
If Roy Hodgson had 20 games left I would back him to get Fulham safe - but the finish line seems too close for his charges to get enough points.
Form Modifiers
One win in ten means that Fulham are odds-on for relegation - the new recruits need to fire immediately.
Form: Last 10; W1, D3, L6
Premier League Season: 0.68 points per game
Last 10 (equivalent): 0.60 points per game
Form modifier: 0pts per game
Games left
Just four home games left - two against Liverpool and Everton, means that Fulham need to pick up a couple of away wins to survive, and they simply don't win away.
0.2 Blackburn vs Fulham 08-03-2008
0.2 Fulham vs Everton 16-03-2008
1.2 Newcastle vs Fulham 22-03-2008
0.7 Derby vs Fulham 29-03-2008
1.7 Fulham vs Sunderland 05-04-2008
0.7 Reading vs Fulham 12-04-2008
0.7 Fulham vs Liverpool 19-04-2008
0.2 Man City vs Fulham 26-04-2008
1.7 Fulham vs Birmingham 03-05-2008
0.2 Portsmouth vs Fulham 11-05-2008
Prediction
19 + 8 = 27 points
20. Derby County 15 points
For completeness I'll add Derby, although they are down barring 8 wins from the last 10.
Form Modifiers
Without a win in any competition since September, Derby are proving tough to beat under Paul Jewell.
Form: Last 10; W0, D5, L5
Premier League Season: 0.36 points per game
Last 10 (equivalent): 0.50 points per game
Form modifier: +0.1pts per game
Games left
Derby will be relegated, but depending on their form they could also decide the fate of their companions.
0.3 Derby vs Man Utd 15-03-2008
1.3 Middlesbro vs Derby 22-03-2008
0.8 Derby vs Fulham 29-03-2008
0.0 Everton vs Derby 05-04-2008
0.8 Derby vs Aston Villa 12-04-2008
0.3 West Ham vs Derby 19-04-2008
0.3 Derby vs Arsenal 26-04-2008
0.3 Blackburn vs Derby 03-05-2008
1.3 Derby vs Reading 11-05-2008
Prediction
10 + 5 = 15 points
Final Table Prediction
40 Middlesbrough
37 Wigan Athletic
36 Sunderland
35 Newcastle United
34 Reading
33 Birmingham City
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31 Bolton Wanderers
27 Fulham
15 Derby COunty
